U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $102.7 million on Thursday and $31.7 million on Friday, totaling $134.4 million in net inflows to begin October. This positive start follows a $148.7 million outflow on September 30, which ended a nine-session streak of inflows that had begun on September 17. Despite the final day's red ink, September remained the second-best month for these funds since October 2025, with $2.65 billion in total net inflows according to SoSoValue data.
The recent inflows coincided with softer U.S. labor market indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 29,000 jobs added in September, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. Consequently, CME FedWatch odds for an October rate hike dropped to 14% from 70% earlier in the week. Bitcoin briefly tested $87,173 on Friday before trading at $84,786 on Saturday morning. Cumulative net inflows since the ETFs' launch stand at $58.1 billion, with total net assets reaching $101.1 billion.
The immediate reversal from outflows to significant inflows suggests that institutional demand remains sensitive to macroeconomic signals rather than purely technical crypto cycles. The sharp decline in rate-hike probabilities following weak employment data directly correlates with the capital influx into Bitcoin ETFs, reinforcing the asset's current classification as a risk-on instrument tied closely to Federal Reserve policy expectations. This dynamic highlights how traditional financial infrastructure is increasingly integrating digital assets into broader portfolio strategies driven by interest rate arbitrage and liquidity conditions.
However, the persistence of skepticism among traders indicates underlying fragility in the market structure. With prediction markets assigning a 93% probability that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high in 2026, and year-to-date ETF inflows remaining under $1 billion despite recent gains, the market appears to be consolidating rather than breaking out. Investors should monitor the upcoming CPI report on October 14 and the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28, as these events will likely determine whether the current inflow trend sustains or if the broader uncertainty regarding price ceilings triggers renewed volatility.
