Bitcoin’s daily 50-day exponential moving average dipped back below its 200-day EMA on Friday evening, undoing a brief golden cross confirmation. The asset retreated to $77,438 from an intraday high of $79,837, tracking a hawkish repricing in rates markets following hotter-than-expected inflation data. Core CPI came in at 0.3% monthly, exceeding the 0.2% analyst expectation, which caused CME FedWatch probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike next week to jump from roughly 69% to 86.5%.
While the daily signal flickered off, the 4-hour chart’s golden cross remains intact, though momentum has cooled with RSI dropping to 43.3. Technical indicators suggest a persistent trend despite the reversal; the daily Average Directional Index stands at 45, well above the 25 threshold separating trend from noise, and the Relative Strength Index is at 55.5. The volatility expansion of 3.95% on the 4-hour timeframe indicates that sharp moves are underway, even as the broader bullish structure formed in late August holds firm.
The rapid reversal of Bitcoin’s daily golden cross highlights the fragility of technical signals when macroeconomic fundamentals shift abruptly. With the 50-day and 200-day EMAs trading in close proximity, intraday swings can toggle these lagging indicators on and off within a single session, rendering them less reliable as standalone buy or sell triggers during periods of heightened economic uncertainty.
From a Market Structure perspective, the divergence between the daily and 4-hour charts suggests that while short-term momentum is cooling due to rate-hike fears, the medium-term trend remains supported. Investors should monitor whether the 86.5% probability of a Fed hike materializes into actual policy action, as this regulatory outcome will likely dictate whether the current consolidation phase resolves into a deeper correction or resumes the rally implied by the stronger ADX readings.
