Bitcoin was trading around $84,000 on Tuesday, up 0.9% over 24 hours but down 2% for the week, maintaining a range it has occupied for a fortnight. This stability occurred despite significant macroeconomic pressure, as the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.274% on Monday, its highest level since June 2007, while the 30-year yield reached 5.583%, a level last seen in 2002. These yields were driven largely by oil prices, which surged after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel before easing slightly below $104.
Institutional demand provided resilience against this backdrop, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording eight consecutive sessions of inflows totaling approximately $3 billion. On Monday alone, net inflows were $31.07 million, led by $54.84 million into BlackRock’s IBIT and $10.32 million into Grayscale’s mini trust, offsetting outflows from GBTC and Fidelity’s FBTC. These funds now hold $107.82 billion, representing 6.42% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. Additionally, Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy disclosed purchasing 1,665 BTC for about $142.7 million between September 21 and 27, bringing its total holdings to 847,666 BTC, surpassing its previous record.
The divergence between Bitcoin’s price stability and rising Treasury yields highlights a decoupling from traditional risk-off assets like gold, which fell to a seven-week low. While higher yields typically suppress non-yielding assets, the sustained inflows into spot ETFs suggest that institutional adoption is creating a structural floor for Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin held between $82,000 and $84,000 despite the Senate failing to advance the Clarity Act indicates that regulatory uncertainty is currently outweighed by tangible demand from large-scale investment vehicles.
Market participants are hedging their positions cautiously, with options traders moving toward neutral put-call skew, signaling indecision between downside protection and rally positioning. The immediate focus shifts to upcoming U.S. economic data, including August core PCE and Friday’s jobs report, which will influence the probability of an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Futures markets currently price a 70.3% chance of another quarter-point increase, up significantly from recent weeks, suggesting that monetary policy tightening remains the primary headwind for crypto assets in the short term.
