Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has sustained a value above its breakeven level of 1 since Aug. 19, representing the metric's longest bullish streak in 2026. Currently measuring 1.002, this onchain indicator suggests that coins moving onchain are predominantly being transferred at a profit, signaling underlying market momentum despite price consolidation around $80,000. Analytics firm Checkonchain notes that short-term holders are exhibiting behavior typical of early bull-market recoveries rather than bear-market sell-offs.
However, ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell cautions against assuming the bear market floor is established. In a Sept. 4 interview, Puell stated that further upside remains less likely than downside risk without additional evidence. He emphasized that for his long-term bias to shift, SOPR must remain above 1 consistently while investors realize profits without triggering new price lows. Additionally, Bitcoin needs to demonstrate a series of higher highs and higher lows on weekly timeframes, a pattern currently absent according to Cointelegraph reports.
The divergence between strong onchain profitability metrics and cautious analyst sentiment highlights the complexity of identifying market cycle transitions. While the extended SOPR streak indicates robust holder conviction and reduced selling pressure from recent buyers, it does not automatically confirm a structural trend reversal. The persistence of profit-taking without significant price depreciation suggests a maturing market dynamic where supply-side stress is easing, yet demand-side catalysts remain ambiguous.
From a Market Structure perspective, the key variable to watch is whether Bitcoin can establish higher lows on weekly charts, as current price action lacks this confirmation. Investors should monitor if the SOPR metric maintains its trajectory above 1 during potential pullbacks, which would validate the thesis of a durable recovery. Conversely, a failure to break through resistance levels combined with renewed selling by whales could reinforce the bearish outlook posited by institutional analysts like Puell.
