Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, issued a note stating that layer-2 network Arbitrum is positioned to become a top performer in the digital asset industry through 2030. The bank attributes this potential to traditional financial firms moving more assets onchain, which creates a lucrative revenue source for Arbitrum beyond crypto-native activity. Specifically, the network receives 10% of net protocol revenue generated by companies building on it, with Robinhood Chain cited as the first major example of this dynamic.
Kendrick noted that Robinhood Chain has materially altered Arbitrum’s economics, with the network expected to generate $5 million in revenue in September at its current run rate, more than five times its pre-launch levels. This economic shift supports a forecast for the native ARB token to reach as high as $10 by 2030, representing a roughly 70-fold increase from its Tuesday valuation of around $0.14. This projected return far exceeds Standard Chartered’s estimates for Bitcoin and Ether over the same period. The thesis relies heavily on the growth of tokenized real-world assets, which have reached nearly $39 billion cumulatively, with the bank forecasting a $4 trillion market by the end of 2028.
The significance of this forecast lies in its linkage of layer-2 infrastructure value directly to institutional adoption metrics rather than speculative trading volume. By highlighting the 10% revenue share model and the impact of Robinhood Chain, Standard Chartered illustrates how blockchain networks are evolving into revenue-generating platforms for traditional finance. The projection assumes that the migration of real-world assets onto chains like Arbitrum will create sustainable economic moats, distinguishing these networks from purely transactional layers. This perspective reframes layer-2 scaling solutions as critical infrastructure providers for the tokenization economy, where success is measured by enterprise integration and fee capture rather than just user count or total value locked.
From an operational risk and market structure standpoint, the bullish case depends entirely on the pace of asset tokenization and competitive dynamics among blockchains. Kendrick explicitly identifies slower-than-expected tokenization and competition from alternate chains as primary risks to the ARB price target. Investors should monitor whether other major financial institutions follow Robinhood’s lead in deploying custom layer-2s on Arbitrum, as this would validate the revenue model. Additionally, the sustainability of the $5 million monthly revenue run rate must be assessed against broader market conditions. If tokenized asset growth accelerates toward the $4 trillion forecast, Arbitrum’s infrastructure role becomes pivotal; however, any fragmentation of liquidity across competing chains could dilute the projected upside.
