Standard Chartered expects Ethena’s USDe stablecoin supply to grow eightfold to $40 billion by the end of 2028. In a Wednesday research report, the bank initiated coverage of Ethena’s ENA token with a year-end 2028 price target of $2, approximately seven times the $0.28 price cited in the report. The forecasts imply ENA would outperform Bitcoin and Ether through 2028, with Standard Chartered predicting BTC at $300,000 and ETH at $18,000 for the same period.
The bank attributes this growth potential to Ethena expanding its yield sources beyond traditional crypto basis trades into DeFi, institutional lending, real-world assets, and equity or commodity-linked basis trades. These new avenues currently generate a blended yield of 5.2%. Standard Chartered also forecasts the broader tokenized asset market will expand from about $350 billion today to $4 trillion by 2028. Central to the valuation case is a fee switch approved by Ethena governance in early September, which directs 95% of net revenue toward ENA buybacks once USDe reaches specific supply milestones. At $25 billion in USDe supply, Ethena estimates this mechanism could generate $375 million in annual ENA buybacks.
Standard Chartered’s projection hinges on the structural shift in Ethena’s yield generation model, moving away from reliance on crypto perpetual futures spreads toward diversified real-world and institutional assets. This diversification is critical because declining returns from traditional basis trades have constrained previous growth models. By targeting a $40 billion supply, the bank assumes that access to a larger pool of tokenized assets, projected to reach $4 trillion, will sustain the protocol's ability to offer competitive yields while maintaining stability. The expansion into equities and commodities suggests a maturation of the stablecoin infrastructure, positioning USDe less as a pure crypto derivative play and more as a bridge between traditional finance and digital asset markets.
The economic sustainability of the ENA token relies heavily on the mechanics of the recently approved fee switch, which ties value accrual directly to USDe supply milestones. While the forecasted buyback volume at higher supply levels appears substantial, Standard Chartered acknowledges that such rates are likely unsustainable without corresponding price appreciation. The comparison to Uniswap illustrates how token prices must adjust to normalize buyback percentages relative to market capitalization. Consequently, the $2 price target reflects an expectation that market forces will balance the aggressive buyback schedule against circulating supply dynamics, rather than assuming indefinite linear growth in token value independent of underlying protocol performance.
