Standard Chartered has revised its stablecoin market capitalization forecast, now projecting the sector to reach $2 trillion by 2030. This timeline is two years later than the bank’s initial projection, following a period where the market plateaued at approximately $309 billion this year. Despite the stall in overall value, the bank reports that transaction activity continues to grow, indicating that existing stablecoins are circulating more frequently rather than growth being driven by new supply.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, identified four distinct markets with varying competitive dynamics. Tether’s USDt dominates emerging-market savings, while Circle’s USDC leads developed-market payments. Both USDC and Ethena’s USDe hold strong positions in crypto trading, and USDC also leads the smaller market for transactions between AI agents. The bank anticipates intense competition in developed market payments, where challengers like USDG, M^0, and multibank networks seek alternatives to current infrastructure. Kendrick noted that how issuers and payment networks divide yield from stablecoin reserves could determine which competitors gain market share.
The revised outlook coincides with regulatory and accounting developments in the United States. Since the GENIUS Act passed in 2025, US regulators have proposed rules on issuance, reserve requirements, and consumer protections. Notably, an FDIC proposal would exclude stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance. The Treasury Department has advanced implementation, proposing rules in August to restrict issuance to authorized issuers, with licensing requirements expected to take effect in January 2027. Separately, the Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed updates affecting balance sheet reporting, which blockchain payments company Tempo suggests could facilitate business use of stablecoins.
Standard Chartered’s adjustment of its $2 trillion target to 2030 reflects a maturation of the stablecoin sector, shifting focus from explosive supply growth to velocity and utility. The plateau at $309 billion suggests that earlier hype cycles have cooled, but the continued rise in transaction volumes indicates deeper integration into financial workflows. By segmenting the market into four distinct areas—savings, payments, trading, and AI agent transactions—the analysis highlights that no single issuer will likely dominate all verticals. Instead, specialized winners like Tether in emerging markets and Circle in developed payments suggest a fragmented landscape where specific use cases drive adoption rather than general-purpose currency status.
Regulatory clarity in the United States remains a pivotal variable for this projected growth. The interplay between the GENIUS Act, FDIC proposals excluding deposit insurance, and FASB accounting updates creates a complex environment for institutional adoption. While restrictions on unauthorized issuers may consolidate power among compliant entities like Circle, the exclusion of pass-through insurance could deter risk-averse corporate treasuries. The critical factor for future market share will be how effectively issuers navigate these compliance hurdles while optimizing yield distribution, as Kendrick notes. Success depends less on raw volume and more on establishing trust and operational efficiency within the newly defined regulatory boundaries.
