Pierre Lindh, co-founder and managing director of NEXT.io, stated that no entity was serving prediction markets with "real journalistic standards," despite an audience size that significantly exceeds the current trading base. This perspective underpins the agenda for NEXTPredict, the first global B2B conference for the sector, scheduled for October 22–23 at Convene in Hudson Yards, New York. The event features CNBC correspondent Contessa Brewer and CNN senior reporter Marshall Cohen on the program rather than in a press room, reflecting organizers' intent to bring the category to broader audiences. Lindh noted that while media presence has exploded, there remains a gap between this visibility and actual user engagement. Polymarket’s monthly active users sit around 283,300, down from a peak above 750,000 in the spring, according to Token Terminal data. Kalshi reported acquiring 3 million new users during the 2026 World Cup, with over $1.2 billion traded on the tournament winner contract, though volumes dropped significantly on non-match days.
The conference agenda addresses market structure and regulatory compliance, featuring confirmed appearances by CFTC directors David Miller and Duncan Hennes, alongside executives from DraftKings, Robinhood, Kalshi, Novig, Cboe, Myriad, and Blackstone. A dedicated session on insider trading will be chaired by WilmerHale's Matthew Kulkin, whom Lindh identified as the industry's most exposed point. Data suggests retail participation is largely rotating from crypto, with Langston Co. projecting the share of crypto traders using prediction markets to rise from 22% to 27%. Federal Reserve researchers found that Kalshi's macroeconomic contracts matched conventional forecasting benchmarks and outperformed Bloomberg consensus on headline CPI. However, profitability is becoming more concentrated; a working paper covering $13.76 billion of Polymarket trades revealed that 3% of accounts captured roughly 27% of dollar profits. Organizers have hedged the event itself by purchasing $3 million of cover on Kalshi's flight cancellation market for a $12,000 premium.
The strategic inclusion of high-profile journalists in the main stage programming signals a deliberate effort to bridge the disconnect between mainstream media coverage and institutional market structure discussions. By positioning reporters like Contessa Brewer and Marshall Cohen as content creators rather than passive observers, NEXTPredict acknowledges that public perception drives regulatory and commercial momentum. This approach highlights a critical tension in the sector: while cable news quotes odds regularly, the underlying user base exhibits volatility tied strictly to specific events, such as the midterms or the World Cup. The decline in Polymarket’s active users from its spring peak illustrates that media attention does not automatically translate into sustained platform loyalty, suggesting that the industry must convert transient interest into durable infrastructure adoption.
From a compliance and operational risk perspective, the concentration of profits among a small fraction of accounts and the reliance on crypto-native capital flows present structural vulnerabilities. The fact that 3% of Polymarket accounts capture nearly a quarter of profits indicates that the market is still dominated by sophisticated actors, potentially deterring retail entry if perceived as rigged or overly competitive. Furthermore, the explicit focus on insider trading regulations, led by legal experts and CFTC officials, underscores that the sector is moving toward stricter enforcement frameworks. As institutions compete away mispricing, the expectation that profit shares will fall below 1% implies a maturing market where edge diminishes, forcing platforms to compete on liquidity, reliability, and regulatory clarity rather than speculative arbitrage opportunities.
