Bitcoin (BTC) spiked past $87,000 on Friday, reaching $87,229 on Bitstamp according to TradingView data, just shy of new eight-month highs. This price movement coincided with the release of September nonfarm payrolls data, which showed the US economy added only 29,000 jobs against an anticipated 84,000. Additionally, August employment figures were revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. The weaker labor market data led traders to scale back bets on hawkish Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, contributing to gains in US stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 1% and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 1.8%. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that the probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the October meeting dropped to 18%, down from 64% a week prior.
US bond yields declined for a second consecutive day, with the 30-year yield falling to 5.573% and the 10-year yield to 5.2%. This follows recent highs where both reached 24-year peaks earlier in the week. Despite the initial spike, Bitcoin price action failed to break beyond multi-month highs seen in September, dropping back below $86,000 by the time of writing. QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin should benefit from softer labor-market prints and falling bond yields, describing a Treasury relief rally as a clean upside catalyst. Trader Aksel Kibar observed a successful support retest at $82,800 on the daily chart.
The correlation between Bitcoin's price surge and the decline in US bond yields highlights the asset's sensitivity to macroeconomic liquidity conditions rather than isolated crypto-specific news. When employment data misses expectations, it reduces the likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening, thereby lowering real rates and making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive relative to fixed-income instruments. This dynamic reinforces Bitcoin's role as a macro-hedge instrument, particularly when traditional safe havens like gold face pressure from real-rate shocks, as noted by QCP Capital.
However, the inability of Bitcoin to sustain prices above $87,000 suggests that technical resistance levels remain formidable despite favorable macro tailwinds. The presence of significant ask liquidity walls indicates that institutional or large-scale selling pressure is capping upside momentum. Market participants should monitor whether the continued easing of Fed rate hike probabilities translates into sustained capital inflows into crypto markets, or if structural supply overhangs will continue to limit price appreciation in the near term.
