Bitcoin traded at $86,152, rising 1.57% on the day following a disappointing US employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, significantly below the 84,000 expected by economists. Additionally, data for the two previous months was revised down by a combined 60,000, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. This weak macroeconomic data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, benefiting risk assets like cryptocurrency.
Market reaction to the data shifted expectations sharply. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike at the October meeting fell to approximately 14%, down from 70% earlier in the week. Prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad indicated an 80% likelihood of a hold on October 28. This follows the Fed's unanimous quarter-point rate increase on September 16, which lifted the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Since then, officials such as New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson have signaled no urgency for further hikes. Bitcoin’s price action reflects this sentiment, with the asset testing a high of $87,173.15, just below its September peak of $87,354.33.
The inverse correlation between negative economic indicators and crypto performance underscores Bitcoin’s status as a liquidity-sensitive asset. When labor market strength wanes, reducing the likelihood of restrictive monetary policy, capital flows toward higher-beta instruments. The drop in Fed hike odds to 14% directly alleviates the cost-of-capital pressure that had weighed on digital assets since the September 16 rate increase. This dynamic suggests that institutional and retail traders are currently pricing Bitcoin less as a hedge against inflation and more as a beneficiary of potential dovish pivots or pauses in tightening cycles.
Technical resistance remains the primary hurdle for sustained upside momentum. While the Average Directional Index at 41.8 confirms a strong uptrend, the Relative Strength Index at 68.1 indicates approaching overbought conditions. Traders require a daily close above the $87,354.33 September high to validate a breakout, particularly given that December rate hikes remain a base-case scenario for some analysts. The convergence of bullish technical setups with uncertain macro-policy paths creates a fragile equilibrium; any resurgence in hawkish Fed commentary could quickly reverse gains, highlighting the ongoing tension between structural adoption trends and short-term interest rate volatility.
