Crypto capital markets are reopening with divergent valuations. Kalshi is reportedly seeking approximately $1 billion in a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double its May figure of $22 billion. Existing investors Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in talks to lead the round, which could include Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group. Meanwhile, Blockchain.com is preparing for an initial public offering targeting a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation, significantly lower than the $14 billion it commanded during the previous crypto boom. The exchange and wallet provider confidentially filed draft registration documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in May.
In contrast, the premium for digital asset treasury (DAT) companies has largely disappeared. According to DWF Ventures, only four of the 20 largest DATs by assets under management—Bit Digital, Strive, Hyperliquid Strategies, and BitMine—trade above a modified net asset value (mNAV) of 1. Since Michael Saylor’s Strategy pioneered the Bitcoin treasury model in 2020, most DAT stocks have underperformed simply holding the underlying crypto asset. When shares trade below NAV, raising equity becomes dilutive, undermining the core financing mechanism that allowed these companies to accumulate crypto without diluting existing holders.
The bifurcation in capital access highlights a maturing market where speculative premiums are being replaced by fundamental valuation metrics. Kalshi’s ability to command a $40 billion valuation suggests investors are pricing prediction markets based on regulatory clarity and user growth rather than broad crypto sentiment. Conversely, the collapse of the DAT premium indicates that the arbitrage opportunity between public equity and private crypto holdings has closed. Investors no longer view these vehicles as superior proxies for Bitcoin exposure, forcing companies to rely on operational revenue or distinct strategic advantages rather than balance sheet leverage alone.
Operational risks remain a critical constraint on this recovery. Bitget CEO Gracy Chen expressed skepticism about recovering funds from the exchange’s $388 million security breach, citing the limited success of freezing assets in the 2025 Bybit hack. With North Korea potentially implicated but unproven, and withdrawals resuming only in stages, the incident underscores the persistent infrastructure vulnerabilities facing centralized platforms. As Blockchain.com moves toward its IPO, the broader market must weigh whether improved liquidity conditions can offset the reputational and financial damage caused by high-profile breaches, particularly when traditional equity markets offer safer alternatives.
